Ignoring human nature can be fatal.
Let me preface this entry with a story:
For 10 months in 2003 & 2004, I was deputy communications director for the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice. The Department has a fantastic group of researchers and data analysts who can predict current and future behavior based on past behavior with incredible accuracy. I learned a lot from them. Statistics are cold, rational informers when it comes to predicting human behavior; and, the more statistics there are in a sample, the more accurate they become as predictors. I’ve used the same sorts of processes to determine voter behavior for more than 20 years.
Yesterday I found a woman’s purse in my back yard. It had been stolen the day before from a house down the block. Today, I’m 99.9999% positive that we’ve either got a delinquent juvenile offender, or perhaps a couple offenders, whose family has recently moved into to our neighborhood. In the past week, there has been a rash of car break-ins, all following the same pattern: 1) targeting unlocked cars; 2) taking items that can be used to enable the criminal to commit other crimes; 3) haphazard disposal of evidence. Had the offender(s) just dropped that purse in one of the garbage bins that sit beside almost every home here, that purse would be in the landfill right now.
Before last week, this subdivision had been virtually crime-free for the year and a half we’ve lived here. In handing over the purse to the sheriff’s deputy, I remarked that he should look into any new residents, particularly new renters who have brought with them a child or children with existing juvenile crime records. The deputy informed me that he’d already ordered a report of this exact information: “to me, it looks like juveniles…and probably ones who are not new to this sort of behavior,” he said. “And they probably live here now.”
How charming. But I know he’s right.
I have little doubt that he’ll soon identify the culprit(s). He probably will not have evidence necessary to arrest them; once these predictable youth get a visit from law enforcement, they’ll just do their deeds the next subdivision over. But they will not change their basic behavior. The only thing I know for certain is that, statistically, by the time these youth are in their 30’s, they’ll be less likely to commit crimes and by the time they’re 40, they’ll probably be done with most forms of illegal activity. That’s they way it works. It’s their nature. And it isn’t going to change.
I consider it reasonable that I’m upset that there are juvenile delinquents in my neighborhood. I consider it reasonable to take precautions I had not previously taken, such as making sure that our car doors are locked before going to bed and that nothing tempting is visible through the windows. Both statistics and common sense indicate that my taking these actions will probably keep me from becoming a victim.
Statistically, it’s not a “religion of peace”
It is my understanding of the basic statistical patterns within human nature that make me so incensed that Political Correctness and fear stop us from taking steps that would end the idiotic Muslim outrage we’re seeing around the world today. This time, because the Pope quoted some 13th century discussion, “the Muslim street” is responding in its usual, predictable, violent and barbaric manner. We Westerners are fools for putting up with it.
We consistently fail to come to terms with the fact that Islam is what it is, just as juvenile delinquency is what it is.
For those who think that we’re going to just get past this war on “Islamofascism” (or whatever the PC police are allowing us to call it these days) by being “tolerant,” I’ve got a message for you. Step back, shut your yaps and let someone who still possesses functioning testicles take the lead before you get us all killed. (Continued)
Tags: communications
